As always, NOT financial advice, but here are a few quick notes + visual breakdowns of what some of you guys have been asking about re: Bitcoin. And keep in mind that I only claim to know that I don't know almost everything about everything, which is the crucial advantage.

That said, the MAIN TAKEAWAY from all of this, especially after days like yesterday = don't panic. It's easy to get caught up in technical stuff (take it from one who knows), but try to focus on fundamentals when shit's hitting the fan -- i.e. less TradingView, more white papers. Just trust the technology, it's gonna be fine.

And seriously -- read the Satoshi paper! Then read the Ethereum paper! Not only bc the latter explains the former so well for us normal humans, but bc it's a legitimately enjoyable piece of writing, imho.

Thx guys. Rock.


Last update -- 03/08, 9:00am:

  • current 4h candlesticks reflect 4h candlesticks from late Jan / early Feb (orange boxes on price graph);
    • indicates parallel (but slightly lower) big-money institutional stop-losses between 38% & 23% retracement thresholds;
  • same goes for MACD oscillator (orange boxes on indicator graph) -- look at similarities;
  • main difference between now & then is the HUGE spike in volume yesterday (orange arrow) -- biggest single-day dump in the history of BTC, I believe, but mostly due to one individual in Japan selling $400,000,000+ worth, so shouldn't be anything macro to worry about;
    • the fact that BTC absorbed the singular blow & the price maintained as well as it did despite this anomaly in volume = good sign (shows significant consolidation since earlier this year when you correlate price to volume between the two sets of boxes);
    • BUT if price continues to drop below $8,250-ish range (like it did in late Jan / early Feb after coming out of that orange box) = not a good sign (could mean more worry about regulations, exchanges, etc.?);
  • current price as I'm writing is around $9,750, but sorry to say it'll probably go lower through the rest of the week . . . (again, compare & contrast patterns between the sets of orange boxes).
  • early April = convergence between:
    • I. uptrend support (solid green line) +
    • II. downtrend resistance (hashed red line) +
    • III. key fibonacci level dating back to late Nov (horizontal white line) +
    • IV. gradual MACD stabilization before next BIG wave (rainbow overlay at bottom of page).
  • Altcoins won't make significant moves until Bitcoin stops going sideways (again, probably early April?), but then you can ride those up & down through the Altsummer as you see fit.

[Edit: Yeah, feel free to share this privately, but please don't post anywhere out in the open or send to someone who might do that. Will do my best to update whenever I can (rather than try to keep up with individual texts / emails) so please go easy on me in the meantime.]

[2nd edit: Everything below is in LOG scale, not linear. Sorry to confuse.]

Jan 28th --> Feb 2nd
Mar 5th --> Mar 9th
Jan 2017 -> Apr 2018
Dec 2017 -> Apr 2018